Ailing Tar Heels rip Wildcats

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/27/2007 - Tucson, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson stepped up for the ill Brandon Wright, scoring 14 and 10 points respectively, as fourth- ranked North Carolina handed No. 17 Arizona its worse home loss in the Lute Olsen era, 92-64, at the McKale Center.

Wright and Marcus Ginyard became ill at the team hotel Friday night, then their Tar Heel teammates went out and inflicted their will on the Wildcats.

Ty Lawson, one game after scoring 14 second-half points in a rout of Wake Forest, poured in a career-high 18 points and dished out eight assists while Wayne Ellington and Tyler Hansbrough added 14 points apiece.

Hansbrough scored a dozen of his points in the second half, as North Carolina (19-2) won its fourth straight in preparation for the first of two meetings with Duke on February 7. First, the Tar Heels have a home date with Miami- Florida and travel down the road to face North Carolina State.

Freshman Chase Budinger led Arizona (14-6) with 16 points, Mustafa Shakur tallied 15 points and Jordan Hill contributed 13 points. The Wildcats have lost four of five.

An early start -- 11 a.m. (mt) in Tucson -- and a ravaging North Carolina defense stifled Arizona's perimeter game. The Wildcats made their first three-pointer with 2:09 left in the game, finishing 1-of-23 over 40 minutes.

Even without their second leading scorer and top defensive stopper, the Tar Heels came at the Wildcats in waves over the first half. A team noted for scoring -- even though it places second in the NCAA in defensive efficiency -- held the Wildcats without a field goal over the half's final six minutes and forced them to 0-for-10 shooting from beyond the arc.

The Tar Heels built their comfortable edge behind a 22-5 spurt to close the first 20 minutes. They did it with negligible offensive numbers from Hansbrough, who scored just two points and didn't make a field goal.

Lawson's acrobatic layup under the arms of two Wildcat defenders with 1:01 left gave UNC a 41-23 edge. The point guard swiped an in-bounds pass and raced the length of the floor moments later to gave the Tar Heels a 43-23 lead.

North Carolina held a 43-25 advantage at intermission thanks to Lawson's 14 points and 14 combined points from Wright's two replacements, Stepheson and Thompson.

The Wildcats came out of the gates strong in the second half, pulling within 50-37 on Ivan Radenovic's three-point play with just over 15 minutes to play.

The Tar Heels responded with 11 consecutive points to take control. Stepheson's inside bucket capped the spurt with 11:33 on the clock.

North Carolina cruised from to victory there.

Game Notes

North Carolina throttled Arizona, 86-69, in Chapel Hill last season...The loss snapped Arizona's 29-game home winning streak against non-conference foes, the fourth-longest in the nation...All of Budinger's points came in the second half...Arizona went nearly seven minutes without a field goal in the second half..Olson's worst home loss before Saturday was a 12-point defeat at the hands of Tennessee on December 23, 1983, his first season at the helm...Reyshawn Terry had 15 points in the victory...Radenovic tallied 12 points.

Gamblingnude NCAA Basketball Betting News

<< No. 23 Hoosiers cruise past Wolverines
Bloomington, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roderick Wilmont and D.J. White each netted 15 points to lead 23rd-ranked Indiana past Michigan, 76-61, in a Big Ten Conference matchup at Assembly Hall. Lance Stemler and Armon Bassett both add

<< Considine is twice as nice against St Mirren
Paisley, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andrew Considine scored his first two goals for Aberdeen to lift the club to a 2-0 win against St Mirren at St Mirren Park on Saturday. The win moves Aberdeen into third place, just four points

<< Kuranyi's double carries Schalke to the top
Frankfurt, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Kuranyi scored two goals and had a hand in the third as Schalke downed Eintracht, 3-1 at Commerzbank Arena on Saturday. The win extends the club's unbeaten run to nine games and pushes Sc

<< Bobcats on the prowl in Oakland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Golden State Warriors try to make it two straight wins when they host the Charlotte Bobcats tonight at ORACLE Arena. This is the first of two meetings between the teams this season. The Bobcats are scheduled to host

<< Clippers conclude homestand with T'wolves
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The streaking Los Angeles Clippers wrap up a five-game homestand when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight at the Staples Center. This is the third and final meeting of the campaign between the squads.

Hunt leads No. 11 Memphis past Golden Eagles >>
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeremy Hunt netted 21 points and made some key baskets down the stretch, as 11th-ranked Memphis held off Southern Miss, 67-64, in a Conference USA battle at FedExForum. Chris Douglas-Roberts added 15 p

Aggies stun sixth-ranked Oklahoma >>
Norman, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danielle Gant swatted Kendra Mann's three-point attempt from the right wing in the closing seconds, and Texas A&M held on to upset sixth-ranked Oklahoma, 54-52, at the Lloyd Noble Center. Morenike Atunrase s

Krog's tally sinks Flyers >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Krog's early third period goal was the difference as the New York Rangers edged the Philadelphia Flyers, 2-1 at the Wachovia Center. Jaromir Jagr picked up the other tally for the Rangers, w

Rush, Chalmers power No. 8 Kansas over Colorado >>
Lawrence, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers scored 21 points apiece, and the eighth-ranked Kansas Jayhawks cruised to a 97-74 victory over the Colorado Buffaloes. Russell Robinson scored 12 points and tallied

No. 9 Stanford bests Arizona State in OT >>
Tempe, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Candice Wiggins' 30 points, five rebounds and seven assists helped ninth-ranked Stanford outlast Arizona State, 73-65 in overtime. Jayne Appel added 17 for the Cardinal (18-3, 11-0 Pac-10), who have reele

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.

Kurt Warner to start, Matt Leinart to watch

Despite the debate that's swirling , Kurt Warner will remain the starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, coach Dennis Green said today. The Arizona Cardinals are the +7 point underdog at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com for this Sunday's game.

Green's comment came in a statement released by the team following an ESPN report that Green decided that rookie Matt Leinart would replace Warner as starter for Sunday's game at Atlanta.

"Generally talking about the starting lineup is not something we do," Green told the AP. "However, given the speculation that was out there we want to make it clear. We're disappointed after last week, but we still expect to be a playoff football team and we fully expect Kurt Warner to be the quarterback that leads us. That has not changed."

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs.