Devils return home for battle with rival Rangers

Hockey Betting Lines

03/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Three straight road games out west following the Olympic break seemed to have caught up with the Devils in their most recent contest.

New Jersey now returns home for the first time in nearly a month this evening when it plays host to a New York Rangers club that is struggling on offense itself as of late.

The Devils return to the Prudential Center to play their first home game since February 12 because of the Winter Olympics. They lost in Carolina in their last game before the break, then went 1-2-0 on the swing's final three games. The trip was capped on Sunday with a 2-0 loss to Edmonton.

Martin Brodeur made 33 saves, but New Jersey's offense failed to get any of its 22 shots past the Oilers' Jeff Deslauriers.

"When you give up 35, 40 shots to a team and you get 20, you should be better than that," Devils head coach Jacques Lemaire said.

Ilya Kovalchuk, who has three goals and five assists in nine games with the Devils since being acquired in a trade with Atlanta, led the team with five shots as New Jersey was shut out for the first time since February 2.

A return home could help. The Devils play two straight and four of their next five at home, where they are 20-9-1 this season. New Jersey also needs to rebound quickly as it has fallen five points back of first-place Pittsburgh in the Atlantic Division.

New York, meanwhile, seemed to have put its season-long scoring troubles behind them after posting a total of eight goals in its first two games after the break. However, the Rangers were blanked, 2-0, by Washington on Saturday before suffering a 2-0 overtime setback to Buffalo the following day.

The Rangers are three points back of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference after Sunday's loss. Brandon Dubinsky scored with 1:23 left to play in overtime, his third goal in four games, snapping New York's goal drought at 149 minutes and 30 seconds. That goal also forced overtime, but Henrik Lundqvist, who made 35 saves, allowed the game-winner 2:22 into overtime.

"We needed the two points, we got one," said Rangers head coach John Tortorella, whose club is 0-1-2 following a three-game win streak. "We have to keep on fighting. That is all we can do. There are a lot of questions about offense."

The Rangers and Devils have split four meetings this year, though they haven't met in the Garden State since a 3-2 New York win on October 5. The Devils then took the next two in the series on the road before the Rangers rebounded with a 3-1 home win on February 6.

Marian Gaborik scored his team-leading 35th goal in that game, but has zero points in his last three games since that meeting. He has also missed a total of four games since then due to injury.

Lundqvist made 41 saves for the Rangers, while Brodeur had 22.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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